Research

👷 My research is driven by two big questions: (I) What explains the high unemployment rates in Spain? and (II) What interventions can reduce this problem?

Ongoing research

• Design and implementation of social and industrial policies in a multilevel government
• Heterogeneous employment effects of adult training

Working papers

[03/2026] More money, more effect? Employment effects of job search services of different intensity. Submitted. [pdf], [code].

Abstract

Job search services modestly raise employment, but it is far from clear whether spending more on each participant improves outcomes further. We address this question by studying Assegno per il Lavoro, an Italian active labour market programme that assigns jobseekers to treatment groups with increasing endowments of job search services. Each intervention is made up of a voucher to fund job search assistance and a performance-based payment related to job search intermediation. Participants are assigned to groups with treatment endowments that increase according to a scoring variable. Leveraging this design, we apply a regression discontinuity analysis to estimate effects on both employment duration and employment quality. We find that providing a larger voucher for job search assistance does not increase take-up of the service, limiting its potential impact on employment. On employment duration, effects of higher endowments after 18 months are essentially null for both the average and the quartiles of days employed. On employment quality, we find that the intermediate endowment slightly increases the length of the contracts. Moreover, a design with different performance payments for job search intermediation seems to deter cream skimming, since workers are not discriminated in their access to the services. These results highlight both the risks of vouchers to implement public interventions and the potential of differentiated performance payments to deter cream skimming.

[01/2025] Which companies use employment subsidies for young workers? Submitted. [pdf].

Abstract

Active labour market policies like employment subsidies require the involvement of employers to be implemented. However, little is known about the types of firms that participate in these programs. This article merges administrative data of subsidy recipients of a program targeted to young workers from Andalusia (Spain) with balance sheet data of Spanish non-financial companies obtaining a sample of 115,867 units. In a first stage, we avoid modelling assumptions by estimating summary statistics on the socioeconomic features of the companies that used the subsidy. In a second stage, to measure the associations with flexible models, we estimate generalized additive models with restricted cubic splines. The model estimates indicate that there are two variables with outstanding prediction ability of participation in employment subsidies:the temporary rate of the workforce and the gross value added of the firm. Thanks to our flexible model, we detect that the relationship between using a subsidy and the temporary rate is non-linear, specifically hump-shaped. Considering interquartile variations in the covariates, a rise in the temporary rate or the gross value added is associated with a substantial increase in the odds of getting an employment subsidy for young people. Our results show the usefulness of generalized additive models to shed light on the actual recipients of the subsidies. This may be of interest when policymakers expect employers to informally train the workers or if they want to foster innovation or certain economies of scale.

Publications in journals or books

[2025] From rules to forests: rule-based versus statistical models for jobseeker profiling (with Christoph Kern). Article in Journal for Labour Market Research. [paper], [code], [review in the Catalan PES].

Abstract

Public employment services (PES) commonly apply profiling models to target labor market programs to jobseekers at risk of becoming long-term unemployed. Such allocation systems often codify institutional experiences in a set of profiling rules, whose predictive ability, however, is seldomly tested. We systematically compare the predictive performance of a rule-based profiling procedure currently used by the PES in Catalonia, Spain, with the performance of statistical models in predicting future long-term unemployment (LTU) spells. Using comprehensive administrative data, we develop logit and machine learning models and evaluate their performance with respect to both model discrimination and calibration. Compared to the rule-based model used in Catalonia, our machine learning models achieve greater discrimination ability and remarkable improvements in calibration. Particularly, our random forest model is able to accurately forecast LTU spells and outperforms the rule-based model by offering robust predictions that perform well under stress tests. This paper presents the first performance comparison between a complex, currently implemented, rule-based approach and complex statistical profiling models. Our work illustrates the importance of assessing the calibration of profiling models and the potential of statistical tools to assist public employment services.

[2025] Outsourcing and time-related dimensions of job quality: Evidence from the Facility Management business (with Alejandro Godino). Chapter in Outsourcing. Cases and Studies in Using Operations Research and Management Science Methods. Springer. [chapter], [preprint], [code].

Abstract

Outsourcing through facility management companies has expanded markedly in Spain, with outsourcing rates among security guards and cleaners more than tripling and doubling respectively between 2011 and 2020. This chapter examines the association between outsourcing and time-related dimensions of job quality across three facility management occupations: cleaners, security guards, and gardeners. The analysis draws on Spanish Labour Force Survey microdata for 2018 and 2020 and Census data for 2011 and 2021. We document three empirical regularities. First, outsourced workers show a lower prevalence of temporary contracts than in-house workers, a pattern consistent with labour subrogation clauses in sectoral collective agreements. Second, outsourced workers display more favourable scheduling patterns, concentrated around standard business hours of client organisations. Third, outsourced workers, particularly cleaners, show a notably higher prevalence of part-time arrangements, reflecting the cost-minimisation strategies of facility management providers with direct implications for income.

[2024] Las políticas activas de empleo en el marco de las políticas de empleo. Article in Anuario IET de Trabajo y Relaciones Laborales. [paper].

Abstract

In this article we develop a conceptualisation of active labour market policies as a subset of labour market policies. Based on a literature review, we elaborate a typology of tools used in the design of active labour market policies and we examinate two procedures for the selection of target groups in these policies. Regarding the tools, we obtain four types of active labour market policies according to their objectives and means: job search services, adult training, employment subsidies and geographical mobility subsidies. Regarding the creation of target groups, we describe a procedure based on the estimation of the effect of the interventions and another procedure based on the prediction of the status of the jobseeker after one year. A more precise delimitation of active labour market policies such as the one we present would allow a more consistent comparison of impact evaluations and facilitate knowledge transfer.

[2024] Efectos de la asistencia en la búsqueda de empleo: una revisión sistemática para España. Article in Gestión y Análisis de Políticas Públicas. [paper].

Abstract

This article reviews the literature on job search assistance programmes in Spain. We ask what interventions of this type have been evaluated, what methods have been used and what is the average effect they generate on employment and long-term employment. For this purpose, we constructed a dataset of 1042 impact estimates from 22 studies. The data analysis combined quantitative bivariate analysis with a narrative synthesis from the best available evidence. Regarding the object and method of study, the results indicate a remarkable concentration of the evaluation on deeply heterogeneous interventions and on identification strategies with assumptions too strong to be credible. Regarding the impact of the intervention, focusing on the most internally valid estimates, the average effect on employment is positive, but of low magnitude (2,71 %). Our work shows the possibility of relying on techniques that facilitate the transportability of results and on more credible identification strategies even with the administrative data normally available. Furthermore, we point out which interventions have solid evidence to be considered good practices to be implemented in nearby contexts.

[2024] El diseño de los subsidios al empleo del Servei Públic d’Ocupació de Catalunya (2016-2018). Chapter in Precariedades laborales y desigualdades de género en Iberoamérica. Dyckinson. [chapter], [book], [annotation instructions].

Abstract

This chapter analyzes the design of employment subsidy programs approved by the Catalan Public Employment Service (SOC) between 2016 and 2018. Using content analysis of 42 legal documents with a total of 446 pages, the study examines three design dimensions: target groups, instruments, and implementers. Regarding target groups, approximately one in five calls targeted exclusively young workers, while roughly 90 % of the budget was directed toward non-profit employers. Regarding instruments, all subsidies had a minimum duration of six months, with a median of nine months of maximum duration, and nearly half of the calls mandated participation in training and/or job-search services. Regarding implementers, the most common budget distribution method combined first-come-first-served allocation with a pre-established scoring formula. Additionally, over half of the calls prohibited simultaneous participation in other active labour market policies. The research contributes both methodologically, by developing shared coding instructions applicable across Spanish employment subsidy programs, and substantively, by providing the first systematic and exhaustive analysis of SOC subsidies during this period.

Policy reports

[2025] Què funciona en polítiques actives d’ocupació per a persones amb trastorns de salut mental? Una revisió sistemàtica de la literatura (with David Gallardo and David Saeteros). [report], [summary].

[2023] PerfilaSP - Anàlisi de variables sociològiques i psicològiques com a predictores d’ocupabilitat en el perfilatge dels Serveis d’Ocupació de Catalunya (with Oscar Molina). [report].

[2022] Informe d’ampliació de l’avaluació de Reempresa-SOC (with Joan Miquel Verd). [report].

[2021] Avaluació del disseny, la implementació i l’impacte del programa Reempresa-SOC (with Joan Miquel Verd and Caterina Molero). [report].